Maritime Security Challenges 2014: Pacific Seapower

The MSC proceedings are intended to foster dialogue addressing maritime affairs in the Pacific region and around the world. What follows is a description of the topics to be discussed, along with short thematic descriptions designed to spur discussion amongst our panelists and delegates. Details of specific timings can be found in the downloadable PDF programme.

The strategic importance of the maritime domain is indisputable: 90 percent of the world’s commerce travels by sea; the majority of the world’s population lives within a few hundred kilometres of the oceans and nearly three-quarters of the world is covered in water. The sea has long been the basis of prosperity and security: a stable and secure ocean commons has been the foundation of the significant expansion of trade, communications, and wealth across the world. With the global shift towards Asia, which is primarily a maritime theatre, the notion of Pacific seapower is increasingly at the heart of discussions amongst lawmakers, naval planners, academics and industry representatives. The challenge is to apply seapower in a manner that protects national interests at sea, promotes greater collective security, stability, and trust, and does so in a manner that is appropriate to the region.

MONDAY, 6 OCTOBER (ARRIVALS AND INTRODUCTIONS)

· Royal Canadian Navy familiarization events (TBD)

· Welcome Reception – Maritime Museum of British Columbia

TUESDAY, 7 OCTOBER (PROCEEDINGS, DAY 1)

Welcoming Remarks

· Vice-Admiral Ron Buck, RCN, Ret’d, Navy League of Canada

Keynote Address

· Vice-Admiral Mark Norman, Commander, Royal Canadian Navy

Geography is a defining characteristic of any nation, and Canada is a maritime nation defined in part by its three oceans: the Atlantic, the Arctic and the Pacific. What is the Royal Canadian Navy’s role in the Asia-Pacific and how is it responding to the challenges and opportunities in a dynamic region of growing global importance?

Presentation: The Changing Strategic Landscape in Asia

· Lieutenant General Dan Leaf, USAF, Ret’d, Director, Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies

Panel: The Naval Rebalance to the Pacific

· Captain Carleton Cramer, USN, Ret’d, Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (Moderator)
· Dr. Geoffrey Till, United Kingdom Defence Academy
· Professor Dong Wang, Peking University
· Rear-Admiral Umio Otsuka, Japan Maritime Self Defense Force
· A representative of the Republic of Singapore Navy

The Pacific region has rapidly become the world’s center of maritime activity. Nine of the ten leading ports in the world are in Asia, those ports are at the heart of worldwide commercial shipping networks, and regional navies are growing in size and sophistication. Security analysts have begun to voice concerns that a naval arms race is underway. What are the political and military ramifications of these developments for regional states and internationally-engaged naval powers? Does the advent of more capable Asian navies presage an increase in maritime tensions?

- Morning Coffee Break Featuring Poster Presentations –

Panel: Developments in the Indian Ocean

· Dr. Jeffrey Hornung, Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (Moderator)
· Vice-Admiral Nirmal Verma, Ret’d, former Chief of Naval Staff, India, and High Commissioner to Canada
· Mr. Bill Elischer, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Defence and National Security Section (TBC)
· Mr. Joseph Bibi, Seychelles Government, Regional Fusion and Law Enforcement Center for Safety and Security at Sea

The Pacific rebalance does not stop at the Strait of Malacca. While often viewed in the context of North and Southeast Asian developments, the effects of Pacific seapower can also be seen in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean region is home to continually evolving strategic challenges which are both impacted by – and have an impact on – the Pacific rebalance. Maintaining critical sea lanes that fuel the Asia-Pacific, countering piracy, addressing diminishing fishery resources, stemming the flow of migrants at sea and managing growing regional rivalries are some of the complex issues within the Indian Ocean. How are states, both big and small responding? What does the future hold for inter- and cross-regional relations? And how do events in the Indian Ocean affect waters further east, and vice versa?

Luncheon Address: TBC

· A senior representative of the Philippines Navy

The Philippines is facing a range of challenges in its defence and maritime affairs. What measures is the country taking to revitalize its naval forces, and what role does Manila see its relationships with partners and allies playing in its future defence considerations?

Panel: Building the Fleets of Tomorrow

· Commodore Kelly Williams, RCN, Ret’d, General Dynamics Canada (Moderator)
· Rear-Admiral Rowan Moffitt, Future Submarine Programme, Royal Australian Navy
· Vice-Admiral Peter Cairns, RCN, Ret’d, Shipbuilding Association of Canada
· Mr. Harry Kim, Seaspan Vancouver Shipyards Co.

Any discussion of seapower requires a look at the ships that exert influence on or are influenced by the seas. The maritime realm is still one dominated by navies, coast guards, and other state-level maritime agencies, and a common thread in Asia is recapitalization and modernization of such services. As maritime planners look over the horizon in the Pacific, they are confronted by an array of challenges in their procurement programs? What are the considerations involved in choosing between indigenous construction and foreign procurement? Are there lessons to be learned and best practices to be adopted from the commercial sector? Are there possibilities for partnerships in development projects?

Conference Banquet Address: A View from the US Pacific Fleet

· Admiral Harry Harris, Commander, US Pacific Fleet

The American rebalance towards the Pacific is part of the overall shift in economic, political, and military power dynamics in the region. What are the main drivers of this policy, and what sort of military and political metrics will be used to assess its effectiveness? What role will America’s allies be asked to play in this process, and how might this increased engagement impact future relations with non-partner states?

WEDNESDAY, 8 OCTOBER (PROCEEDINGS, DAY 2)

Panel: The Expansion of Economic and Commercial Activities at Sea

· Mr. Lyston Lea, US National Maritime Intelligence-Integrated Office (Moderator)
· Dr. Claude Comtois, University of Montreal
· Mr. Alexander Metelitsa, Industry Economist, US Energy Information Administration
· Mr. Alex Walker,Vice President of Operations, Ret’d, Chevron Shipping

Seapower is not only about navies and warships: an equally important component is a state’s ability to exploit the sea for commercial and economic purposes. The second great wave of globalization has seen a dramatic increase in the importance of sea-based economic activity in arenas such as commercial shipping and shipbuilding. Older methods of resource extraction, like fisheries, are being joined by hydrocarbon and seafloor resource mining. What is at stake in the maritime realm and what are the considerations of states and companies operating in contentious areas? Is international cooperation possible – and if so, what kind – given strongly-worded national interests?

- Morning Coffee Break Featuring Poster Presentations –

Panel: Navigating Maritime Disputes

· Dr. Justin Nankivell, Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (Moderator)
· Dr. Don Emmerson, Director, Southeast Asia Forum, Stanford University
· Dr. Mark Valencia, Nautilus Institute, Honolulu
· Dr. Nong Hong, China Institute for South China Sea Studies
· Col. Ramli Nik, (Ret’d), National Defence University of Malaysia
· Dr. James Kraska, Duke University (TBC)

Greater interest in offshore resources and the growing importance of seaborne trade has increased the risk of conflict emerging from unresolved maritime boundary disputes. Increased tensions related to these disagreements are perhaps the most likely source of conflict in the maritime realm. This is particularly true as states begin pursuing resource extraction activities in disputed ocean territories. Can conflict be averted, considering the high-stakes and nationalistic fervour attached to these issues by disputing states? Is there any promise of a cooperative and lasting solution within the framework of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that will satisfy the ambitions of all parties, regardless of their political or military power? And how are non-party states, as users of the ocean commons, addressing their own approaches to these disputes?

Luncheon Address: An ASEAN Perspective on Maritime Cooperation

· Amb. Dr. Hasjim Djalal, Senior Advisor to the Indonesian Minister for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries & Indonesian Naval Chief of Staff

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has emerged as a significant trade bloc since its founding in 1967, accounting for a combined GDP of $2.1 trillion and a combined population of 609 million people. In some respects, ASEAN is also showing signs of becoming a more integrated political entity, particularly in the maritime realm, though this convergence is threatened by internal cultural and political differences, and external pressures from China and the US. Indeed, ASEAN appears to be splitting into three tiers, especially with regard to maritime issues: one challenging China (in part with American support), one pro-China, and one attempting to find a middle way between placating and not yielding to China. What, then, are the prospects and challenges to ASEAN on maritime cooperation, both internally and externally?

Presentation: A South American Perspective on the Rise of Pacific Seapower

· Rear Admiral Arturo Undurraga, Commander of Naval Aviation, Chilean Navy

All coastal states are dependent on the sea for their safety and prosperity. Chile – like Canada – is a country with a capable navy and various overseas interests. How has Chile approached the economic and defence challenges posed by the global shift in maritime power? And how has it coped with the tyranny of distance and threats to its maritime sovereignty?

Panel: Technology and Naval Operations

· Rear-Admiral Richard Greenwood, RCN, Ret’d (Moderator)
· Vice Admiral Barry McCullough, USN, Ret’d, Lockheed Martin
· Dr. Milan Vego, US Naval War College
· Dr. Tai Ming Cheung, Director, University of California Institute on Global Conflict & Cooperation

Technology is a leveller of the battlefield, and states across the Pacific are modernizing their maritime forces. Much of the equipment in service with modern navies has never been tested in prolonged conflict, and there are various instances from the past when well-worn theories, tactics, and equipment proved unsatisfactory when faced with the uncertainties of modern combat. Are today’s navies at serious risk from emerging technological developments? Is technological superiority still a force multiplier, and what platforms or weapons might prove decisive in tomorrow’s maritime operations?

THURSDAY, 9 OCTOBER (PROCEEDINGS, DAY 3)

Special Forum: The Future of Pacific Seapower

Featured Discussants:
· Dr. Jim Boutilier, Special Advisor, International Engagement, Maritime Forces Pacific
· Dr. Geoffrey Till, United Kingdom Defence Academy
· Mr. Robert Work, Former US Undersecretary of the Navy

States throughout Asia are increasingly dependent on maritime resources and trade for their prosperity. Much of the world economy depends on the safe transit of commercial vessels through Asian waters, though significant portions of these seas are the subject of intractable territorial disputes. Competition for resources is increasing, while states have devoted larger portions of their budgets to building and sustaining ever more sophisticated naval forces. Conflict is far from certain, though these competing trends suggest that regional tensions are likely to increase if cooperative solutions continue to remain elusive. What does this increase in economic activity and technological sophistication mean for the future of maritime operations in the region, and what might be the result of a failure to find cooperative political solutions to the region’s most pressing security issues? What role might non-regional states play in helping to stabilize this globally critical region?

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